Iraq - worse before it gets better

The Red Zone has some thoughts on shaping the terms of engagement in Iraq and why things will get worse before they get better - and they will get better.

Rather, Friedman continues, we want a situation where the terms of engagement are more favorable to us--in short, a war that ranges

a democratically elected Iraqi government against the Baathist and Islamist militants. It needs to be clear that these so-called insurgents are not fighting to liberate Iraq from America, but rather to reassert the tyranny of a Sunni-Baathist minority over the majority there. The insurgents are clearly desperate that they not be cast as fighting a democratically elected Iraqi government--which is why they are desperately trying to scuttle the elections.

It comes down to legitimacy and justification. At this point in the conflict, the paramilitaries feel they can still make a valid claim--to their own followers, the Arab world and "useful idiots" like by Michael "Minuteman" Moore and Ted "Collaborator" Rall--that they are the true Iraqi patriots. God willing, after the elections their lie will prove impossible to maintain. They will appear to the world--and increasingly themselves--for what they are: paramilitary gunmen seeking to launch a fascist coup against an elected government.

He goes on to point out how even Abu Musab al-Zarqawi understands the significance of the elections.

How can we kill [Iraqi] cousins and sons and under what pretext, after the American start withdrawing? The Americans will continue to control from their bases, but the sons of this land will be the authority. This is the democracy, we will have no pretext.

Pretext. In other words, a legitimzation, a plausible reason, a fig-leaf of morality to justify the unjustifiable slaughter of American soldiers and Iraqi civillians. That pretext is nonexistent. Surely he doesn't think Allah will provide it for him?

He ends with this:

But if events on January 30 go reasonably well, the difference could be be stark: the enemy, finally, will have exhausted the lies they have used to justify their nihilistic murders. At the same time, the Iraqis who have sided with the future will find their morale boosted, their courage fortified. They will be fighting for their homeland, a legitimate democracy. And that is a moral high-ground from where few dedicated combatants have ever failed.

Let's hope we get there soon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------