Iranians were surprised and suspicious; why, some asked, did the mere reiteration of long-standing policy prompt an avalanche of outraged foreign reactions?
In a constructive spirit, I offer them four reasons. Ahmadinejad’s virulent character gives the threats against Israel added credibility. Second, he in subsequent days defiantly repeated and elaborated on his threats. Third, he added an aggressive coda to the usual formulation, warning Muslims who recognize Israel that they “will burn in the fire of the Islamic umma [nation].”
This directly targets the Palestinians and several Arab states, but especially neighboring Pakistan. Just a month before Ahmadinejad spoke, the Pakistani president, Pervez Musharraf, stated that “Israel rightly desires security.” He envisioned Muslim countries like Pakistan opening of embassies in Israel as a “signal for peace.” Ahmadinejad perhaps indicated an intent to confront Pakistan over relations with Israel. [and derail the mid-east peace plan...ed]
Finally, Israelis estimate that the Iranians could, within six months, have the means to build an atomic bomb. Ahmadinejad implicitly confirmed this rapid timetable when he warned that after just “a short period … the process of the elimination of the Zionist regime will be smooth and simple.” The imminence of a nuclear-armed Iran transforms “Death to Israel” from an empty slogan into the potential premise for a nuclear assault on the Jewish state, perhaps relying on Rafsanjani’s genocidal thinking.
In addition, Iran is purging all the reformers and preparing for war.
Ahmadinejad is betting that America would not want to get involved in another war, even if it meant the destruction of Israel. Dictators never learn.
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