Snippet.
The first question that must be answered in divining IDF intentions in Lebanon is what the center of gravity of the Hezbollah is, because that is what the IDF must be aiming to destroy. The two obvious ones are Hezbollah's ability to influence the Lebanese government and the motor of that influence -- the military force that Hezbollah maintains in the south. A step down we can ask, what is the most important component of Hezbollah's power in the south? Again the answer is easy. It is the Hezbollah cadres themselves. Hezbollah's most precious possession isn't Katyushas, long-range rockets, night vision goggles or antitank missiles or electronic equipment. It is the trained core of its military force. Equipment can be replaced but Hezbollah's cadres represent an expensive, almost irreplaceable investment. In them resides the organizational knowledge of Nasrallah's organization. It embodies man-decades of operational experience against Israel. Rockets can be replaced. The stars of Hezbollah's operational force are less expendable.
From this observation I'm going to say that despite the received wisdom of the newspapers to the contrary, the fighting at Maroun al-Ras and Bint Jbeil have been and continue to be an unmitigated defeat for the Hezbollah. The Hezbollah are doing the single most stupid thing imaginable for a guerilla organization. They are fighting to keep territory. Oh, I know that this will be justified in terms of "inflicting casualties" on the Israelis. But the Hez are probably losing 10 for every Israeli lost. A bad bargain for Israel you say? No. A bad bargain for Hezbollah to trade their terrorist elite for highly trained but nevertheless conventional infantry. Guerillas should trade 1 for 10, not 10 for 1.
While the dynamics may be different in Iraq, I'd say the results are going to be the same - the defeat of the terrorists. Coalition forces are killing or capturing 2,000 - 3,000 terrorists a month while the combined coalition and Iraqi force losses are about 200. A greater than 10:1 loss for the terrorists. Unlike in Lebanon, local Iraqis are providing the coalition with an average of 4,000 tips a month on terrorist activities. This will increase the kill ratio in favor of the coalition.
As more and more of Iraq is secured, coalition forces are being freed up to concentrate on Baghdad. This is why the fighting continues to intensify there. Baghdad will be the end for the terrorists.
The terrorists have been left with no other option than to desperately try and spark a civil war. And while there is a lot of sectarian violence, Iraqis have rejected an all out civil war.
There is a lot of hard work to do in both wars but the outcome will be the same - the defeat of the terrorists.
In a related note, something similar is happening in Afghanistan. Operation Mountain Thrust was launched to clean out the Taleban from their last remaining strongholds. And as in the case of Hezbollah, the Taleban are making the same mistake of trying to defend territory. But there the kill ratio is massively in favor of the coalition. It varies from 25:1 to 50:1 against the Taleban.
Some will say, that may be true, but the Taleban are not the hardened and trained force Hezbollah are. I agree. So why does the left wing media keep portraying the Taleban that way?
Bottom line to all three? The success of all terrorists is to inflict heavy casulties on the enemy using unconventional tactics, while sustaining few terrorist casualties. In all three cases the kill ratio is heavily against the terrorists and is a clear sign they are losing.
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