Why the US election result will not even be close

From The Times Online

This impression of a President on the ropes, but with a challenger incapable of climbing into the ring, has reinforced the three fashionable arguments made about this election. The first is that it is "bound to be close". The second is that this tight finish will reflect an intense political divide that has rendered the United States a 50:50 nation. The third is that the booming economy will not much help President Bush and might even, according to some observers, assist Mr Kerry.

All three of these in vogue arguments are profoundly suspect. ...

[...]

The current public relations debacle over Iraq is undoubtedly serious. It will not, nevertheless, determine the course of the 2004 election. That contest will not, I assert, be close, nor will it mirror a 50:50 nation, nor will the condition of the economy be anything less than highly significant. ...

There is a fourth factor, the Clinton factor; Hillary not Bill.

It is widely rumored that Hillary is quietly trying to scuttle Kerry's campaign. Why? She wants to be president not vice president. If she were to run as Kerry's vice president and they won, she would be locked into at least four years as VP. Then what happens? She dumps Kerry and runs by herself for President? Better to let Bush win and run against whoever the Republicans put up next time; Bush can't run again by law.

If Kerry were to be elected with Hillary as the VP and Kerry's presidentcy was a disaster, it would kill Hillary's chances to become president.