The evacuation of Saudi Arabia

From Janes

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The steady exodus of expatriate workers from Saudi Arabia is set to gather pace in the coming weeks following the latest terrorist assault against foreigners in the Kingdom. JID assesses whether Al-Qaeda's long-standing strategy of destabilising the increasingly embattled House of Saud stands any real prospect of success.

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For some experienced Middle East analysts, there are significant parallels between the current situation in Saudi Arabia and the final months of the Shah of Iran before his flight into exile, followed by the Islamic revolution which swept the ayatollahs into power (and cost the USA one of its key regional allies). As one foreign policy veteran told JID: "The collapse of authority tends to be the end result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once there is the perception that the old regime is doomed, it is usually a matter of time before it actually collapses. We saw precisely this sequence of events in Iran in 1979."

There is mounting concern among Western intelligence agencies that Al-Qaeda's next move will be to target the Kingdom's oil infrastructure in order to disrupt production. Any incident which threatens to reduce Saudi exports is almost certain to fuel the escalating price of oil - which reached a 21-year high at the end of May (although in real terms, this is still lower than the peaks reached during the 1973 oil crisis).
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