Thursday, June 03, 2004

Muqtada Al-Sadr examined

By MEMRI

Want a great concise round up of Sadr? MEMRI lays it out for you and concludes that while Sadr made many mistakes and lost a lot of support he is still a problem.

Conclusion
As the process of transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis by the occupation authority rapidly approaches its deadline at the end of this month, there remain many problems that could derail it. One such problem is Muqtada Al-Sadr.

The cease fire recently negotiated by Al-Sadr represents a tactical setback for him in the short-run but perhaps a strategic victory in the long-run. The threats by the coalition forces to "capture or kill" Al-Sadr is now all but forgotten. Being media smart, Al-Sadr may eventually use the threat to kill him as a badge of honor for having survived the threats of the most powerful army on earth.

According to the terms of the cease fire, Muqtada Al-Sadr did not have to dismantle his Mahdi army. On the contrary, the cease fire might afford him an opportunity to expand his recruitment base, which is potentially enormous given the high rate of unemployment among Iraqi youth. In today's Iraq, supplying his new recruits with weapons is no problem, and he can count on Iran for money. Most importantly, Al-Sadr continues to rule Al-Sadr City, with its 2 million residents. It serves as his own fiefdom with his own police, prison, and social services. Above all else, Ali Al-Sistani is 75 and Muqtada Al-Sadr is 31. Time may be on his side.

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