One vision, identified with Osama bin Laden, wants the movement to continue targeting the West, especially the United States. The other, advocated by Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's No. 2, wants the "holy war" concentrated in Muslim countries, especially Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
The events of the past year or so show that the al-Zawahiri vision is in the ascendancy. Outside the bomb attack in Madrid just over a year ago, the movement has scored no successes in the West, while at least 130 of its operatives have been picked up in half a dozen European countries and the United States.
To be sure, the Madrid attack briefly boosted bin Laden's prestige by triggering a victory for the (anti-Iraq War) Socialists. And the terror underworld has recently been abuzz with rumors of a coming spectacular attack in Britain, to achieve another change of government in a major Western democracy.
Nevertheless, it is clear that majority opinion within the terror movement favors the al-Zawahiri strategy — which aims to seize control of at least one Muslim country to provide the safe haven that the Islamists enjoyed in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. This is why the past two years have witnessed a dramatic rise in the number of attacks in the four targeted countries.
So, the terror underworld is abuzz with rumors of an attack just prior to the UK elections. Wonder why the UK press is keeping mum? Could this be why the BBC downplayed the report on the British terrorists indictments in the US? Maybe al Qaeda is split and bin Laden's followers might still attack Britain.
Looking at the calendar, between now and the UK elections in 3 weeks time, there are two important "holidays".
St. George's Day is on Saturday, 23 April. St. George's Day is England's National Day. And this day might have a special appeal to terrorists.
St George is the patron saint of England. He is the patron of soldiers and archers, cavalry and chivalry, of farmers and field workers, Boy Scouts and butchers, of horses, riders and saddlers. He is also the patron saint of Aragon, Catalonia, Genoa, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Istanbul, Lithuania, Moscow, Palestine, Portugal, and of Venice (second to St. Mark).
According to legend, St. George, a soldier of the Imperial Army, rescues a town in what is now Libya from the tyranny of a people-eating dragon. St. George overpowered the beast and then offered to kill it if the townspeople would convert to Christianity and be baptized. The story is that there were 15,000 conversions on the spot. Openly espousing Christianity was dangerous and eventually the authorities of Emperor Diocletian arrested George. He was martyred about 303 AD.
But the 23rd of April is a bit far away from the 5 May elections. Monday, May 2 is a bank holiday in the UK. On Friday, 29 April, the trains and roads will be clogged with travelers rushing to get home for the long weekend. This is six days before the UK election; there were three days between the bombing and elections in Spain. The terrorists timed the Spain bombings to coincide with rush hour.
The devastating terror attacks in Madrid saw 10 bombs explode on four trains in three stations during the busy morning rush hour.
Each of the trains was laden with commuters; office workers, students and schoolchildren.
And 29 April is just over one year since the 11 March Madrid bombings.
In the aftermath of the Madrid bombings, the Spanish police faced many problems dealing with the huge number of casualties. These problems were compounded by traffic on the roads and communication overload.
The roads on Friday, 29 April will be crowded with people rushing to get home for the long weekend.
Just over a year ago England suffered some, as yet unexplained, serious disruption in communications service.
More than 130,000 telephone lines remain blocked in the North West after a fire started in a BT tunnel in Manchester city centre.
Emergency services have been affected, and police say it is a major incident. [...]
Telephone lines have also been affected outside Manchester, with problems with Cheshire's 999 service.
Phone lines are also down in Merseyside, Lancashire and north Derbyshire.
Greater Manchester Ambulance Service said it had been put under "extreme pressure" after the blaze damaged its radio network. [...]
The control centre is using mobile phones to contact emergency crews.
An ambulance spokeswoman said: "We send messages out to ambulances via radio, but that is not working at the moment.
"We are extremely busy and we are working tirelessly to get the radio up and running. [...]
Freeserve, the internet service provider, said customers in the Manchester area had experienced difficulties with their broadband connections as a result of the fire while AOL said its customers in the area, who are connected to the BT network, would also experience problems.
A simultaneous attack on trains and telephone exchanges would increase the terror and dramatically increase the loss of life.
Let's hope the intelligence services, police force and the public remain alert.
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