Tuesday, April 27, 2004

Al-Qaeda's death throws

Al-Qaeda is losing and they know it. From Iraq, Jordan and now Saudi Arabia they are starting to attack their own; Muslims. Just as Hitler, in the death throws of the Nazis, began to kill those around him.

This then is when they are most dangerous. Already deranged, their continued losses are pushing them further into the abyss.

They failed in New York. bin Laden miscalculated the US.

They failed in Afghanistan. bin Laden miscalculated the US again.

They failed in Iraq. bin Laden miscalculated the Iraqis.

They are failing all over the world as terror plots and cells are broken up. Most recently in Britain and I suspect in the US.
In a post just a few days ago I noted how in the same week the US an UK simultaneously took steps to protect both the Congress and Parliament. The UK acted on a "specific threat" of chemical attack.

Spain is their only success and Spain gave them that victory.

As a result of these losses they begin to strike out at their own kind whom they perceive to be traitors; Jordan and Saudi Arabia. These latest attacks on these two countries were not meant to be small like in Spain. These attacks would have been far more devastating than 911. The Jordan attack was intended to possibly kill up to 80,000 people, according to the Jordanians. Likewise the Saudi attack was meant to be far more lethal. The Saudis intercepted four of the five trucks, only the fifth hit its target.

What does all this mean for us?

Weather by fortune or chance the year 2004 will be Al-Qaeda's last stand both as an entity and movement. In 2004 their arch enemy, George W. Bush will be reelected. Even as I write this Kerry is self destructing just like Clark and Dean before him. Al-Qaeda must do everything in its power to stop Bush being reelected; Al-Qaeda knows this. Al-Qaeda cannot withstand four more years of a Bush administration.

If they fail this time they will lose all credibility and their followers will drift away looking for a new messiah. Hopefully a peaceful one this time.

Like a trapped and crazed animal Al-Qaeda will now lash out at anyone and anything. It can no longer see the enemy; everyone is the enemy now. We are seeing these blind attacks now. The big attack is yet to come. When it attacks it will use all of its weapons, all its cunning and all its fury.

Even a crazed animal can be cunning, very cunning. As I just mentioned, their latest plan for the US and UK seemed to be to go for decapitation of the government and not the leader. Again that failed.

US elections are now just seven months away. Time is running out. Look at the current tempo of attacks. Spain, Iraq, Britain (2 failed attempts) Jordan and Saudi Arabia all in just two months. And the attacks are getting bigger and bolder.

So where will the attack be?

The Middle East is lost and Al-Qaeda knows it. Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Jordan, Turkey - gone. Palestine - gone. Syria, Iran - going. Most of the rest of the world is being lost to them.

The only place where an attack will possibly make a difference or mean anything, will be the US, UK or both simultaneously. Only a catastrophic attack on one or both of these countries will galvanize the Jihadist world wide to push forward for an Islamic dominated world.

We know when and where. What about how?

A crazed animal learns its lessons well. Holed up in a cave, licking its wounds, its mind is focused on learning what went wrong and how to make a better kill next time.

The 911 attacks were meant to be more symbolic than destructive. bin Laden in a video tape was surprised the Twin Towers collapsed. He was probably more surprised at how quickly the financial markets in New York were up and running. But he will have most definitely noted the effect on the markets which still have not recovered to pre 911 levels. The US now has redundant market capabilities should New York be hit again. Does Britain? Likewise bin Laden will be following the political fallout of 911 via the 911 commission.

New York, Bali and Spain are recovering from conventional blasts. You can rebuild buildings and while lives take longer they to can be rebuilt.

The latest attack on Jordan and the possible attack on Parliament were both chemical. The next Al-Qaeda attack will be a WMD type attack.

With defeats mounting, space running out, time running out and facing the humiliation of Bush being reelected, Al-Qaeda will be aiming for a knock out blow. One that would bring America to its knees. Symbolic targets will not do this time.

A country functions through Politics and the economy. You need leaders to govern and an economy to run the country. Take out both and the country no longer functions.

The elections in seven months are not between Bush and Kerry; they are between the world and bin Laden.

So, what can we do?

As the brave passengers on the Pennsylvania flight said on 911, "Let's roll".

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